crying wolf

[Markcarter]

Originally Posted by adriatica

i think the favoured result here is new elections... and berlusconi back with an even larger majority although by no means sure

Apart from this bit I totally agree. For me bel seems to be in politics for himself any good that we get is just an accidental by product of his own greed. We are in a mess now because of the laws he bought in to protect himself.

Mark

[Nielo]

Electoral reform is what I would favour. The old adage that “if it ain't broke, don't fix it” works the other way too and Italian politics is broke!

Napolitano is also said to be in favour of electoral reform and will be consulting political leaders before making a decision on the way forward. I hope he talks to Beppe Grillo too!

He will need to be strong to resist the pressure from Berlu for snap elections.

[Anniet2]

Originally Posted by Angie and Robert

Thank you for your posts John, good to see you back again.
A

I echo these sentiments. We haven't heard from liketheroman for a while either.....

There was a feature on Radio 4's PM programme this evening in which the author of 'The Dark Heart of Italy',Tobias Jones, outlined the current state of Italian politics. I need to listen to it again to fully absorb all the intricacies though!

Annie.

[giovanni]

... Gio ... god knows where you get your news from but it is certainly not what is talked about here... more poor people than ever... salaries not enabling people to arrive to the end of the month...schools and hospitals suffering major cut backs...fuel and all services rising in price... even the case where you might look at it from an economists point of view... they always like to see governments reign in spending and balance books is today causing concerns as the EU again warns Italy over spiraling costs and high inflation...low production...OK Fiat has made a profit...

every ones dying for a spending government to return and add some money into the economy... basically i think it might all be worse if the Euro had not strengthened against the dollar as Italy is so reliant on imported fossil fuels that the rises in all things such as electric and gas, road fuels ...and production costs would have hit even higher levels...

we have had the lorry driver strikes over fuel and now we have daily protests in and around naples over rubbish and where to dump it... Italy is a happier country today...for a while as nothing much will change ...but 75 per cent of the population are in a better mood for a while and the sun is shining

Spend,spend,spend !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What a load of crap, its time to pay back!

My info? many sources but if you care to look at the top of this forum site there is a news link. i assume you have seen it in the past, but maybe the brighter news stories do not fit in with the general attitude of doom and gloom.

Over the past 10 months it has carried stories not only of the weak economical mess Italy is in, but how certain aspects of its economy have been performing better than elsewhere! and that has nothing to do solely with FIAT, but never the less lessons can be learnt from them and indeed lesson could be learnt from the situation britain was in, in the early 80s.

You cannot keep spending money you do not have, you cannot have wages that are out of line with the true value of your economy.

And as for your statement "thank god the euro is strong against the dollar"!

I do not believe how anyone xconcerned with the general situation in Italy could use that as somesort of saving grace!!!!!!

What rubbish, the euro being strong actually hits the export market, pretty badly! without a good export market, who can offord to buy enough imported fuel?
Oh yes the government can borrow and get into further debt,oh yes i suppose the people can do that as well! "Thank god the euro is strong against the dollar" ! what an amazing statement.......



It was time that Italy paid back its dues, that government after government has just let pass over it.
So yes i assume the majority of Italians are happy at the moment, but for how long? Till Italy is finally bankrupt. Till the next brave politician comes in and tries to not buy there way out of the mess.....

How amazing is it, a majority of people are happy, without actually knowing what the alternative is!!!

[Nardini]

One should never underestimate dott. Berlusconi though. He was furbo enough to see the writing on the wall at the end of his last term as prime minister and enacted a law that would ensure the downfall of the left-wing coalition that beat him - as he privately predicted. The left-wing parties were always bound to disintegrate as there is very little common ground that any of them share. Some want social equality, some want job security, some want pensions, for some it is a specific ideology. So long as there are so many political parties in Italy, the left-wing will never be in accord.

The right-wing parties, however, have one single uniting factor that is shared by all. Money. I could say "greed" or "power" here, but it is a very simple rope that binds them together.

Italy needs to have Berlusconi's law reversed (at the very least) BEFORE an election that will give dott. Berlusconi the reins again. He hasn't got quite so many friends to get out of prison this time, though, as well as having dodged most of the criminal investigations against himself, so who knows what he will do. I am sure, however that whatever he does will not be for the benefit of the "ordinary" Italian citizen however.

I half-expect him to withdraw from the Euro - if not the EU - in defence of his ego. But anything is possible. Controlling the prime source of information in Italy is not something to discount and he is a VERY furbo man! It has even been said that it was he that enraged the left-wing parties to cause the current situation by reminding them that any change in the electoral law would cause the small parties to lose out - both financially and also by the power they currently wield.

Dott. Berlusconi's final act of revenge is that the politicians that came to power at the last elections for the first time will not now even qualify for the very attractive pension that a retired MP or senator is entitled to. They have to be in the job for 24 months before gaining such entitlement.

As I said before, never underestimate the power of dott. Berlusconi!

PS. Now is the time to read Alexander Stille's book, "The Sack of Rome". It really is a very well written eye-opener to the world of dott. Berlusconi for those that don't know much about him yet.

[annec]

I agree re Stille's book. I bought it on the recommendation of someone here (Was it you Nardini??). After reading it noone could give any credibility to B as a politician of any standing whatsoever. "Furbo" he may be, but only in a bad way!

The really sad thing is, though, that he was merely exploiting what was already an extremely corrupt system, where even the "good guys" were taking kickbacks everywhere and setting up systems to protect themselves

[martin ware]

Berlosconi's last government lasted its full term and as has been said if it isn't broken do not change it. The Italians chose to.

Berlosconi is the Italian Branson, he is not a whimp and is not stupid. Is he corrupt? Maybe, but all politicians are and at least he a businessman with a brain (in other words he is not a politician).

I believe the return of Berlosconi will be only good for Italy and the sooner that its people understand that any lefty party can only damage Italy in the world today the better Italy will be. However I am not holding my breath.

[NickZ]

Considering the focus of this website I think it might make sense to wonder what a change of government will mean.

1) Tighter residence rules. Just check the thread about Sicily. No way a centre right government would be able to stand against them. Remember it was intially a centre left mayor who started this. Prodi could ignore that.

2) Likely more expulsions. Same reasoning.

3) Taxes? What are the chances that the tax burden won't be shifted onto the lower income workers? Berlusconi seems intent on lowering the capital taxes below the 20% current rate. That money will have to come from workers. What he could do is go after people with residence that aren't filing taxes. Remember the tighter residence rules. You'll need income for residence. Having income means paying income tax.

4) The hand out on ICI last year was cute. Smart mayors will start to hike the ICI levels which won't hurt the locals but will hit the people with second homes.

So how much will home prices fall in the areas favoured by non-Italians?

[alan h]

Originally Posted by Nardini

............ Berlusconi's final act of revenge is that the politicians that came to power at the last elections for the first time will not now even qualify for the very attractive pension that a retired MP or senator is entitled to. They have to be in the job for 24 months before gaining such entitlement............

Now that seems a a very sensible idea - perhaps [when he's next in power] he could go one step further and make the pension 'graduated', so you need to be an MP for [say] 20 yrs to get the full pension. They'd still be better off than the man in the street when it comes to pensions



.

[adriatica]

as regards pensions the actual beak off point is 2 years 6 months and 1 day... that is the term.. so yes they loose their pension rights if they do not manage to get an interim government set up...one of the reasons a lot of Italians are suggesting as to why the left side of the politicians are trying to insist on an interim government for at least 1 year to get the new laws on electoral reform passed...

it surprises me somewhat that all anyone talks of here is the berlusconi crimes... its a quite naive and one sided view of things...prodi and his family have made zillions out of EU funding for companies controlled by his wife and various relatives ...and there have been some strange goings on also with attempted murders of a magistrate...its basically a common thread amongst all Italian politicians which holds the record for the amount of convicted criminals serving in parliament amongst so called civilised countries... evenly spread between left and right

as regards the Euro being strong... the main rises that have caused disruption to the standard of living of the Italian family have been to do with fuel price rises... 3 times above the rest of the normal inflation since the euro came in and basically as everything Italy produces in way of energy is imported and you have to pay in dollars its obvious that it has mitigated rises in the costs of imported fuels...

however as regards the production side...well most Italian companies have factories that produce outside of Italy...costs here are too high because of the union insistence on permanent jobs and early retirement... the last government backed down when it came to changing the laws and raising the age and voted out the new law that the right had regarding this...due to start in jan.08 and now Italy has a burden of pension rights that no country in Europe can or could support...

so as a lot of italy's production that sells abroad is iconic or fashion based it not really something that will be too affected by exchange rates in that sense... as people to be a la mode seem to regard paying more as part of the fun...

i do not think any politician here is wonderful...i certainly do not think that Italy has an overpaid working population far from it... they have much lower incomes than most other equivalent European countries ... their problem is the costs and the costs are basically to do with their administration both nationally and locally and that protected level of bureaucracy here is sacrosanct amongst all parties...

with the highest wages and the highest number of politicians Italy has a huge amount of tax burden that they cannot meet...instead of cutting capital projects and investment in infrastructure... cut the government costs and get the country running properly...maybe the right will try this... the left certainly not... as the are in possession of the major part of these jobs for life...

its good to talk Gio and i always enjoy your comments