Can Berlusconi save Italy?

[nigelaxis]

Originally Posted by bosco

Of course, 'by household' is not 'per capita'. But the disparity with the original claim is interesting.

The problem with this statistic is that you have the children still at home in their late thirties. If the information comparable then.........lies, damns lies and statistics.

Its a bit like the unemployment rate. People don't bother to register as its not worth it. They study for 10 years longer. They work for free after completing their studies (6 years for some!). They work without contract. If only the real figure was known. I would guess that Italy has one of the worst 'real' unemployment rates in the EU.

[bosco]

Originally Posted by nigelaxis

The problem with this statistic is that you have the children still at home in their late thirties. If the information comparable then.........lies, damns lies and statistics.

I agree absolutely that household composition makes the two sets of statistics impossible to compare directly (though at least one set definitely exists and can be examined in detail). But this does not solve my question about the source of the original statistics (if in fact they do exist) which have been given credence by the 'People of Liberty'.

One of my problems with those statistics is that the quoted figure for Italian disposable income per capita is higher than the GDP per capita for Turkey (on 2006 GDP figures which are the latest I've found). Yet the original statistics are supposed to show that Turkey has a higher disposable income than Italy per capita. Very strange. Is there no tax at all in Turkey, and a subsidy from elsewhere?

And what are all these other 'industrialised countries' to which Italy is supposedly so inferior? How many small oil states are included, for example?

[Nardini]

If I may first just answer the original question; no. There is as much chance of Berlusconi (or indeed, anyone on the political horizon at the moment) saving Italy as of pigs flying.

Now, a little more seriously, if I may. Perhaps the biggest problem that faces the majority of stranieri when it comes to trying to analyse the political situation in Italy is that they invariably start by comparing Italy to wherever it is they come from originally. That kind of analysis will never work in a country that is so different in both the legal system and also the way in which politics are viewed here.

Italy has had a very difficult birth - in point of fact, it has had several "births" if one is to try to look for the causes of the problems here. There are many books written, objectively, on the history of Italy and are well worth taking the time to read if one is really interested in the subject - the subject being Italy here, of course.

It is just too easy to take some little snippets of information and try to weave them into a story - a disposable story. The kind of story that sells newspapers and double glazing, that is.

Italians have long had to find a way to survive during times of foreign rule. It is this ability to survive on an individual, or rather a family, basis with no real regard to state or government that still shapes the way that things happen here. It isn't the same sort of "I'm all right Jack" view that is often found in the UK cultures - or even the US culture - because, quite simply, there is no real sense of being a single country to bind people together in a way that we would recognise in ourselves.

The political system here is, perhaps, a case in point. Created by, essentially, the Marshall plan engineers at the end of the war, it was meant to reflect the US way, with the added rider of being easily manipulated by the same "engineers". The aim at the time was to enable the US to remain sufficiently in control in order to prevent the evils of communism from gaining a stronghold in Europe by way of Italy. It worked very well, as the DC managed to keep them out of power very effectively - but at great cost to the democratic systems that allowed this. You will all, I'm sure, be aware of the oft quoted "fact" that Italy has had 61 governments since WW2. Of course, should you look at the actual people involved in all of those governments, you will find that all of the Italian politicians in power have been drawn from the same pool. In fact, it is quite easy to argue that Italy has had the most stable government in Europe since the war. We are still "enjoying" the same system, with the same faces, with the same motives.

Saying all of that would seem, perhaps, that I am saying that it is not possible to change things here. Actually, no. I'm not saying that. I only wish to point out some of the background issues that are driving what you experience here.

To pick up some of the points that damiano raised: yes, indeed, Italy is a "sick" country from the economic standpoint. However, it is not because, as was later suggested, that Italians are lazy, workshy and indolent people. It is very much more complex than that.

Italy has "enjoyed" a position in the world economic "league table" far beyond the actuality of the situation in the past. The usual way to make Italian products competitive in the world market was to make it cheaper than the competition - Indesit was a good example of this. By the constant manipulation of the Lira, Italian business forged ahead, even though it was buying all of the raw materials from outside - even the power needed for manufacturing was bought in from outside of Italy. Taxes were not particularly high and, in any case, were rarely paid in any case - allowing the factory owners to make vast fortunes. Italy survived by the simple expedient of hiding everything in a mass of paperwork and slowing everything down that might create a slow-down in economic growth. (eta: the economic growth of a particular individual, that is)

Of course, this is not a truly sustainable course of action, but it made many people very rich - so it didn't really matter (remember my saying that Italians don't really have a patriotic sense of identity). Individual Italians - Bresciani, Torinese, etc. - became exceedingly rich whilst Italy was borrowing more and more money (usually called "investment") from overseas sources to keep some sort of infrastructure running - as well as paying the rather generous, but well deserved, pensions of the ex.statale, etc.

All of Europe has had to change over the past 20 years or so. The UK has managed to change itself from a manufacturing country into a service industry country very successfully in that time. Of course, in the case of the UK it was a change driven by running out of the raw materials that used to drive manufacturing - coal being particularly important. Italy, with a remarkable lack of native raw materials was - and still is - at a disadvantage here. This was compounded by the "third world" finding their strength in manufacturing. China has raw materials in abundance as well as cheap labour. An unbeatable combination in the modern world of today.

No, I'm afraid that Italy will never be a manufacturing country of substance again - not in my grandchildren's lifetime, that is. No more so than the UK will be. It has nothing to do with a workshy population - just an unlucky set of circumstances and a social situation that does not encourage a patriotic view of a country that is barely perceived as a single force.

Berlusconi is, as before, merely seeking power for the sake of his eternal memory. A great salesman and a brilliant lawyer - but entirely without the kind of scruples that we expect to see in public servants. Of course, in Italy there are no "Public Servants" at all, merely state employees - statale. It might seem like a small difference, but if you think about it you will see a vast chasm between how the two are both regarded by others and how they regard themselves.

So, what to do? We, as foreigners can do nothing, of course. Only talk to people and try to encourage. Whinging is not something we should be doing as it is entirely counter-productive when trying to encourage people to see beyond the TV screen, as it actually feeds the sense of hopelessness so often seen here. Things will change here, as everywhere, but they will not change whilst the interests of individuals are being held above those of the nation - north and south together.

Secondo me...

[Nardini]

As a side issue, perhaps you might find the NationMaster web site interesting. It has an interesting fact base and might be what you were looking for?

And - there is always the CIA World Fact Book (did you know that Italy is slightly larger than Arizona, whilst the UK is slightly smaller than Oregon?).

[Charles Phillips]

Nardini, I have read your long intelligent post and you are undoubtedly correct in the impossibilty of 'straneiri' understanding Italian 'politics'. However, I am much more optimistic than you are about the future. (Although I am a straniero, and a fundamental communist having understood the corruption of communist ideals in the Italian scenario). So: I am delighted that I will no longer have to suffer Bertinotti's sound clips on the news, but at the same time distressed that Bossi still has a (debilitated) voice. Despite my (almost genetic) political leanings I'm really quite happy to give Silvio another go at it.

It is time (and actually I think it has happened) that Italians distance themselves from historic stereotypes. It is even more important that the 'mezzogiorno' - or maybe we should term them the niggers - get onto Obama's bandwagon and say, hey, we ain't so thick. Because, in my opinion, that is the truth. Bossi and the lega nord are LYING about the wastrels of Calabria and Sicily - but these lies are being believed.

This 'accepted wisdom' from the rich North (and you are probably correct in tracing the whole casino back to the Marshall plan) is what is truly holding Italy back. Employment - God forbid we attach to Damiano's ideal of 'mass employment', that isn't going to work anywhere on the globe nowadays - but Italy is a viciously divided society and (for me) the culprits are in a great part the protectionist (so called) commies of central Italy. You just have to look at the level of unnecessary local legislation in Toscana, Umbria, Le Marche and think about how this rubbish impacts on Calabria and Basilicata.

[NickZ]

A couple of days ago one of the Rai programs [Anno Zero?] did a piece generally on immigration. Touched on was how the Lega wants to ban national contracts. The wierd bit is the ones that favoured it were in the "rich" north. Now you'd think they'd understand that national contracts are for THEIR favour not for Sicilians. If a factory owner can pay Sicilians 20% [or even 5%] less he is going to close his factory in the north. Why wouldn't he?

The problem with many of ideas pushed by these guys is on the very surface they sound okay. But they don't hold up to any sort close viewing.

There is going to be an interesting conflict if it becomes clear the Lega wants to really crack down on illegal foregein workers. Those employers aren't likely to be far left voters. You saw this when the Lega was the first people to come to the support of workers when they were attacked after the election.

Right now Berlusconi and his group are a wierd mix of left and right policies. Many of the sort pushed by workers [and ignored by the left] others the types pushed by the rich.

You see it in the whining about things like tax paperwork. They want things to be like other countries. Well guess what sector comparisons are like other countries. They want less temp work when the countries they point to are moving heavily to temps of all sorts.

[Charles Phillips]

Let us accept the presumption that stranieri can't understand Italian politics, and discuss what straneri might have to offer.

I had come in last night with what might have been considered an intemperate post (following an exciting evening arguing the toss about American politics in a very international group). We had got around to comparing the attitude which (going back a bit) the Yankees had to the Confederate states, segueing into the 1960s civil rights movements in the southern states, and getting into comparisons with today's Italy.

There are significant similarities - (maybe pork-barrel politics isn't really that different from Mafia influence) and the arrogance of the 'ruling class' (US speak Kennedy clans) - whether you want to say that is Bossi or the bourgeois matrons of Milano or Torino or the Confindustria (who I actually have a lot of faith in), but I do get the feeling that Italy is probaly on the cusp of a very important bloodless revolution. (Which is why I am optimistic.) The snag is that Beppe Grillo is not only a coward, but he isn't from the South.

Anyway, I am pretty convinced that a Berlusconi figure (and yes, I read the Economist etc which try and persuade the opinion makers that he is quite beyond the pale) is more akin to an Eddie Shah.....but then, I am saying that no European can understand Italian politics, but quite probaly Americans can connect by referring to their more recent history.

Think about it, and if you can, get involved: because it has really opened up, and however uninvolved or ignorant or modest that you newly arrived stranieri think you are - just vocalise your opinions: nobody is going to shoot you! It could just make a difference.

[Angie and Robert]

Originally Posted by nigelaxis

The fix is actually easier to then its made out to be. Afterall, Italy can draw on the experience of other EU nations and adopt the policies that seem to be working the best.

Personally I would:
1) Adopt the British system of law. Things happen faster and you are accountable. This would stick lots of people in jail and make an example not o do it again.

80 % of the inmates of UK prisons re-offend within 1 year of their release.
I'm not sure what you should do about them, but British style prisons don't seem to be a particulary successful solution.

should be directing pressure on the EU to intervene. Surely the EU must have some laws on abuse of power? It can't all be about the curve in bananas!

The EU never was about the curve in bananas , it was just one in a long line of examples of Sun newspaper misinformation re the EU, "Brussels Bans Bent Bananas " was the headine I believe, about 10 years ago. Ever since I have entered Sainsburys with trepidation, expecting to see the dreaded straight bananas everywhere, but I have never seen them yet ! Amazing how long a lie can have credence .
R

[Nardini]

Originally Posted by Angie and Robert

The EU never was about the curve in bananas , it was just one in a long line of examples of Sun newspaper misinformation re the EU, "Brussels Bans Bent Bananas " was the headine I believe, about 10 years ago. Ever since I have entered Sainsburys with trepidation, expecting to see the dreaded straight bananas everywhere, but I have never seen them yet ! Amazing how long a lie can have credence .

Precisely. The other story that is oft used as an example of EU interference is the "rickety ladder" directive. The actual directive concerns the safety of workers on scaffolding - nothing to do with ladders. But hey! don't let a bit of truth get in the way of a story that will get your readers worked up into a good froth.

[AllanMason]

Originally Posted by NickZ

A couple of days ago one of the Rai programs [Anno Zero?] did a piece generally on immigration. Touched on was how the Lega wants to ban national contracts. The wierd bit is the ones that favoured it were in the "rich" north. Now you'd think they'd understand that national contracts are for THEIR favour not for Sicilians. If a factory owner can pay Sicilians 20% [or even 5%] less he is going to close his factory in the north. Why wouldn't he?

Sorry, but what's a "national contract"?

Al